ASML CEO Highlights China's Semiconductor Lag Due to Export Restrictions
Veldhoven, Tuesday, 31 December 2024.
China’s semiconductor industry faces a 10-15 year delay due to U.S. export bans on EUV technology, limiting them to older DUV lithography and impacting their market position.
Current State of Chinese Semiconductor Manufacturing
According to ASML CEO Christophe Fouquet, China’s semiconductor industry is significantly lagging behind global leaders, with their capabilities estimated to be 10 to 15 years behind Western competitors [1][2][3]. While Chinese manufacturers like SMIC have managed to produce 7nm chips using modified DUV (Deep Ultraviolet) systems [1], they remain unable to access the crucial EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography tools that are essential for advanced chip production [3]. This technological gap has been primarily driven by U.S. export restrictions, which began in 2020 [1].
The EUV Challenge
The absence of EUV technology represents a critical bottleneck for Chinese semiconductor advancement. ASML, which has never shipped EUV lithography tools to China due to the Wassenaar Arrangement and U.S. sanctions [3], took approximately 20 years to develop this technology [1]. While Chinese companies like Huawei are attempting to develop their own EUV lithography tools [5], industry experts, including Fouquet, suggest that it could take 10 to 15 years for China to catch up to current EUV capabilities [1][2].
Strategic Implications and Industry Response
U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has recently acknowledged that export controls are merely ‘speed bumps,’ describing efforts to hold China back as a ‘fool’s errand’ [4]. The focus is shifting towards maintaining technological leadership through innovation rather than restrictions alone. ASML continues to maintain strict control over its equipment in China to prevent potential reverse engineering [1][3], while simultaneously facing pressure from the U.S. government to halt repairs and maintenance of DUV machinery in China [3].
Future Outlook
The technological divide could widen further as Western manufacturers progress toward High-NA and Hyper-NA EUV technologies while Chinese manufacturers work to develop basic EUV capabilities [3]. Chinese semiconductor companies are responding through increased R&D investments and optimization of existing DUV capabilities [5]. However, as Fouquet notes, building a successful semiconductor company requires more than just financial investment - it demands significant R&D and years of relentless effort [2].